‘Prediction Markets’ – Understand this cutting edge forecasting technique just adopted by Pfizer, Novartis, GSK, Lilly and Janssen Ortho.

‘The time for Prediction Markets in Pharma has arrived’
– Binyah Kesselly,

Director of Enterprise Improvement & Process Excellence, J&J

1. Why attend this workshop?

• Learn the fact about the technique:
• What are ‘Prediction Markets’?
• What’s being done, where and by who?
• What are the results so far?
• What are the advantages and the pitfalls of adoption?
• Find out the answers to all your questions in an interactive Q&A and discussion.
• Discover the technique for yourself – be part of an easy controlled live experiment where you can try out the software and see results as they are generated.  Win a bottle of champagne if you’re the best forecaster!

2. What are ‘Prediction Markets’?

You can’t beat the market!  The ‘efficient market hypothesis' says that the price of a financial asset reflects all the information available and only reacts to surprising news.

Five major pharma companies have recently seized on this idea to improve their forecasting . They're creating ‘virtual markets' whose sole purpose is incorporating information . Their staff trade ‘virtual shares' on a ‘prediction market'. The price has proved to reflect an excellent picture of the future, beating the best known alternatives.

‘There is a lot of unused but potentially relevant data within an organisation.’ [Prediction Markets] ‘elicit underlying views’
Gary Johnson, CEO Inpharmation

Prediction Markets are ‘one of the best, if not the best ways of predicting the future'
Dr David Pennock, Chief Research Scientist at Yahoo! Inc

3. Who will be running this workshop?

Binyah Kesselly, formally Director of Strategic Planning at Janssen Ortho, now Director of Enterprise Improvement & Process Excellence at McNeil Healthcare (J&J)
Joe Miles, is Director of Prediction Markets at eyeforpharma

Product life cycle management forecasting: identify the real threats and opportunities for your brand

• Learn how dynamic event modeling can accurately quantify the impact of various life cycle management activities such as:

• New Indications
• New Formulation
• New Clinical Data
• Labeling Changes

• Understand how various data sources can be used to solidify your life cycle forecast assumptions
• Discover techniques to quantify the real threat of competitive launches

Suliman Rashid, Principal – Global Forecasting and Opportunity Assessment, IMS Health
Martin Szostak, Principal, IMS Health

Accurately forecast the demand of product launches in the pharmaceutical marketplace , ranging from truly innovative launches which create new classes of treatment to product lifecycle extensions in highly developed and competitive therapeutic areas.

As innovative entrants are inherently surrounded by a multitude of unknowns, traditional forecasting approaches, such as analog-based models or patient-based epidemiology models, often fall short in the ability to provide proper launch guidance due to their reliance on historical data or current patient treatment paradigms. 

On the other hand, product lifecycle extensions often need robust understanding of how to effectively position the lifecycle developments in a highly competitive environment and how the launch will grow the franchise.  BASES will share their  approach to us ing primary physician survey data to inform pre-market forecasts leveraging their  proprietary forecast model and extensive database of pharmaceutical product launches .  Blinded case study examples will be used to illustrate the method and BASES will share their extensive model R&D.

Therese Glennon, Vice President, Pharmaceutical Practice Leader, BASES,  The Nielsen Company

Kris Klein,  Director ,  Pharmaceutical Practice, BASES,  The Nielsen Company

Driving Forecast Excellence within Your Organization

Abstract:

Join us for a practical workshop covering:

•  Improving forecast accuracy with demand driven forecasting

•  Innovative approaches to new product forecasting

•  How to combine the power of automation, analytics and workflow to generate the most unbiased accurate consensus forecast on a large scale basis

•  How forecasting technology can be used to identify and calculate the effect of individual business drivers on your forecasts so that you can make more informed decisions

Why should you attend ?

• Upgrade your forecasting skills and knowledge
• Be the first to learn the latest technologies and methodologies
• Gain new ideas you can put to work immediately
• Interactive Q&A and networking with peers and technical experts

Alcon relies on SAS forecasting to reduce back orders, save staff time and optimize inventory levels – with a payback of more than $6 million to date .

"SAS is the linchpin of our supply chain management strategy."

- Gary Keathley, Custom Pak materials manager, Alcon, Inc.

Speakers:

Charles Chase , Business Enablement Manager, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Global Practice, SAS

Mark Wolff, Solutions Architect, Health & Life Sciences, SAS