10.00

Pre-conference registration and light breakfast

10.30

Pre Day Half Day Workshop – “New Product Forecasting”

Visit - www.eyeforpharma.com/forecasting08/pre_workshops.shtml

Art Cook, Principal, ZS Associates

12.30

Lunch

13.30

Pre Day Half Day Workshop – “New Product Forecasting”

Art Cook, Principal, ZS Associates

15.00

Coffee Break

15.30

Pre Day Half Day Workshop – “In-Market Forecasting”

Visit - http://www.eyeforpharma.com/forecasting08/pre_workshops.shtml

Gary Johnson, Managing Director, Inpharmation

18.30

Opening Day Networking Drinks Reception

19.30

End of Day One

08.00

Registration and Coffee

08.40

Chairman Opening Presentation

Sean Davis, General Manager,  Ferring

08.50

Determine which modern business forecasting method is best for your company

• An overview of the range of business forecasting methods available today which can boost your forecast accuracy
• Discover and select the best method for your and overcome your forecasting challenge
• Conquer issue in predicting the future by combining methods for improved accuracy
• Learn how to employ management judgment effectively alongside statistical methods for better buy-in

Paul Goodwin, Professor of Management Science, Bath University  

09.30

Rolling Forecasting: Integrate short & long term forecasts

• Understand how the integration of short- and long term Finance and Demand plans can benefit your business
• Learn the process, organisation and systems required to develop and integrate this technique
• Hear about a ground breaking new approach to rolling forecasting currently under implementation with Novartis Pharma

Bjarne Lemmich, Head of Forecasting, Novartis

10.00

Navigating the brand’s commercial journey using Dynamic Event Modeling: Forecasting and Valuing Changes in the Face of Uncertainty

Jerry Rosenblatt, Global Practice Leader, Forecasting & Opportunity Analysis, IMS Management Consulting

10.30

Coffee Break

11.00

Learn to Forecast the Unpredictable: an expert guide

• Discover how to forecast for pandemics, notably influenza and how to deal with uncertainty of incidence and timing
• Understand what other factors you should consider when forecasting the possibility of emergent new infections
• Learn how to build a quantified forecast and make a case for investing in product development
• Can you mitigate the risk?

Graham Clarke, CEO, Immunobiology

11.30

Show me the money: Where in the world will the growth come from?

• Understand how to compare  regions globally on the key demographic and socioeconomic drivers of the Healthcare sector
• Focus on identifying the demand profile for Healthcare – which focuses on age, affluence and disease profile
• Discover how to compare the size of the “sweet spot” of older affluent groups and then identify countries that will experience growth

Susan Ward, CEO, Global Demographics Healthcare

12.00

Forecasting in the new Nycomed: A newly merged Top 30-Pharma company

• Discover the challenges of forecasting in a newly merged company and hear which processes to choose
• Find out how to use forecasting as an integration tool to gain a common platform and create certainty
• Learn to be weary of the messages sent out during a forecasting process
• Discover the learning points 1 year after the Nycomed / Altana merger

Etienne Adriansen, Director of Strategic Business Planning and Portfolio Management, Nycomed

12.30

Consensus when there’s no consensus: 15-minute interactive pre-lunch challenge

• Win a helicopter tour of Barcelona!
• An introduction to a new approach to forecasting when there’s little consensus on forecasting criteria

12.45

Lunch

13.50

High-leverage ROI Projections

• Understand differences between measuring and modeling of ROIs: accuracy and analytic insights

• Understand the foundation of a good ROI model: isolation of intrinsic relationships and continuous-time analysis
• Discover a high-leverage ROI model : prediction and analysis of long-term ROIs based on only a handful of weekly data points

Lars Nordmann, Head of Forecasting , Organon

14.20

Forecasts alone are meaningless: It’s the decisions that matter

• Even if you could create a perfect forecast, would your business take the right investment decisions?
• How to identify the assumptions and create visibility of the key drivers of the forecast
• Develop a most likely forecast and apply an appropriate forecasting model when validating results
• Differentiate between forecasting & planning and accept risk when taking investment decisions, setting targets & expectations

Martin Joseph, Head of Forecasting & Information Management, AstraZeneca 

14.50

Workshops

BASES – New Pharmaceutical Product Forecasting: using physician response with modeling techniques to reliably forecast new product sales

Kris Klein, Director Client Consulting, US, BASES
Erk Maassen, Director Client Consulting Europe, BASES
Scott Wright, VP Client Consulting, BASES

The MSI consultancy – Forecasting ROI to Optimise the Marketing Mix

Many of us talk about ROI marketing but are our brand teams really putting it into practice? An interactive workshop to enable you to put ROI Marketing into Practice in your organization

Learn how to:

•  Track the relevant Key Performance Indicators for your strategy

•  Set realistic strategic and tactical objectives based on ROI modeling

•  Choose the most worthwhile activities

• How to optimize what you spend where

Alex Blyth , Head of Marketing Sciences, The MSI Consultancy

16.20

Coffee Break

16.50

Panel Session
The Future of Pharma: Forecast your path of excellence

• Hear why the measure of long term forecasting quality should be decision-making and not accuracy
• How can the forecast influence the direction of the organisation?
• Events vs Trends: examine why the forecaster needs to identify the event and estimate the impact on the forecast

Eric Rambeaux, VP - Business Strategy & Portfolio, Solvay
Bjarne Lemmich, Forecasting, Novartis
Etienne Adriansen, Director of Strategic Business Planning, Nycomed

17.30

TPP, Forecasting & NPV: The evil triad of product development?

• Learn why forecasting in the course of product development is such a different exercise and find out what is really needed, by when and why?
• Discover the most common misunderstandings & issues with forecasts and understand why the relationship with the various stakeholders is so difficult
• Design an implementable action plan that can improve the understanding of the forecast and usage in your company

18.00

Forecasting in the changing dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry

• Understand the drivers of change in the pharma industry to deliver more accurate forecasts
• Discover the challenges forecasters face in the changing market and select the appropriate analogues when forecasting products

Art Cook, Principal, ZS Associates

18.30

Opening Day Networking Drinks Reception

19.30

End of Day Two

09.00

Registration and Coffee

09.25

Chairman Opening Speech

Art Cook, Principal, ZS Associates

09.30

Value Creation: Challenging R&D

• Understand the initial evaluation for an early development opportunity to get the product funded
• Find the potential: From mechanism of action to indication, identify unmet medical need & position relative to the market
• Balance technical feasibility (R&D clinical planning) with commercial opportunity: Discover how to focus R&D on achievable value creation

Nic Talbot-Watt, Director of Forecasting, GE Healthcare

10.00

How Not to Deliver a Forecast: a worst-practice guide!

• Misunderstand expectations and meet them: Misplace the stakeholders and your place amongst them
• Get the level of detail wrong - work on the principal that telling it absolves you of responsibility for it
• Fail to prepare the ground with your stakeholders - don't look at previous forecasts, don't ask any questions beforehand
• Don't accept that you might be wrong

Richard Murgatroyd, Forecasting Manager, Roche

10.30

Increase forecast robustness: definition, measurement and the added value of the forecaster

• Discover the objective of forecast robustness and the end-result of the forecast exercise and share these notations with marketers
• Understand why the forecaster should be the key player to challenge and quote the robustness of the forecast
• Challenge each range of assumption: the forecaster handles many more forecasts in his company than a marketer, being able to cross analyse and range from the best to the worst

Thierry Boutin, Head of Forecasting Market Analytics, Sanofi-Aventis

11.00

Break

11.45

Deliver continuous improvement opportunities in your forecasting process

• Strategy-driven continuous improvement for forecasting accuracy: does your organisation have a strategy to improve accuracy?
• Forecasting in-line products and the supply chain – demand planning from an affiliate perspective
• Example of assumption management technique – moving from forecast accuracy to assumption accuracy
• Establishing proper forecast ownership within the organization – ownership and proper incentives; it’s all about behaviour, not tools

Alex Baralt, Demand Manager, Abbott

12.15

Medium-term sales forecasting in a stable market environment

• See how Daiichi-Sankyo has created a major product line in the European hypertension market and delivered accurate forecasts
• Discover how to establishe a new forecasting process in order to increase the forecast accuracy across the European business
• Understand how to successfully align headquarters as well as affiliate level forecasting

Manuel Reiberg, Senior Manager Market Research Europe, Daiichi Sankyo

12.45

Use Prediction Markets as a Forecasting Tool for Pharma

• Challenge the current forecasting mindset: Should finance play a supporting role rather then driving the process?
• How Prediction markets can improve on conventional approaches for forecasting and decision-making
• Discover the impact & rationale of decisions made via traditional forecasting and how this affects your bottom line

Binyah Kesselly, Director of Process Excellence in Commercialization, Johnson & Johnson

13.15

Lunch

Lunch Workshop

Learn how to use prediction markets to harvest the unexploited knowledge of your biggest data resource – Your People

• Discover how your competitors use ‘Prediction Markets’ to optimize use of internal knowledge to make smarter strategic decisions
• Understand how internal insights from R&D to the Sales Force can become a valuable part of the planning process
• Gain an in-depth understanding of this cutting-edge technique in practice with an interactive simulation and take-home Action Plan

Binyah Kesselly, Director of Enterprise Improvement and Process Excellence in Commercialization, McNeil Consumer Healthcare
Joe Miles, Project Director, efp Markets

14.25

How to choose market share techniques for a new product forecast

• Quick’n’dirty: Find out how to implement order of entry models to forecast early phase products
• Get expert opinion on analogue based market share and Monte Carlo simulation and find out how these can benefit your forecasts
• Discover the benefit of fixed product and variable product profile via market research departments

Rafaat Rahmani, CEO, Lifescience Dynamics

15.10

Fixed dose combinations forecasting

• How not to do it: Understand why most industry fixed dose combination forecasts fail
• Learn a better way: Use fixed dose combinations as brand extensions rather than new presentations
• Understand and predict why some fixed dose combinations are big successes and others total failures
• Learn how to predict the degree of cannibalisation of the parent brand and the therapy category

Gary Johnson, Managing Director, Inpharmation

15.40

Centralization of The Forecasting Process: A Case Study

• Develop a “Centre for Excellence in Forecasting" through centralization which leads to Improved Forecast Accuracy and Fewer Out-of-Stock Situations
• Find out how to use this metheod to reduce safely stock and improve processes and better financial planning
• Meet customer needs more efficiently in order to improve customer satisfaction

Peter Lena, Director of Forecasting, Sepracor

16.10

End of Day Three