• Pharmaceutical industry is process driven
• Forecasting beyond numbers, the concept of an assumption database
• FUTURCAST Assumption-based forecasting in a Total Market environment
• The fixed planning baseline for in-line and pipeline products: a common approach
• The forecasting function: global and local responsibilities
• Real life experiences at Boehringer Ingelheim and Novartis

Robert Carbone, CEO, Futurion

Summary: This workshop will use group discussion to identify the top 10 pitfalls of forecasting and brainstorm ways of avoiding or solving these pitfalls using the group’s experience and best practice.  There will also be an opportunity to produce a personalized action plan for attendees to identify what they would do differently as a result.

Stephanie Hall, Director, Creative Marketing Measures & Pharmaceutical Industry Executive

Improve strategic market evaluation and forecasting with Market Structure Analysis and Patient Flow Modeling

• Discuss purpose, uses, and benefits
• Understand primary and secondary data requirements
• Familiarize with the methodologies involved in these initiatives
• Walk through case examples
• Assess the appropriateness of a Market Structure Study and a Patient Flow
• Model for specific therapeutic categories

Haro Cumbusyan , Partner, Healthcare Strategy Practice, Michael Allen Company

• Learn how SAS Forecast Server can be used to identify and calculate the effect of individual business drivers on your forecasts so that you can make more informed decisions
• Why are there so many algorithms? Find out what forecasting algorithms exist in the marketplace and what they do and don't do
• Why is middle-out forecasting better than top-down and bottom-up hierarchical forecasting?

Sukhdev Dlay, Principal Statistician SAS UK

Forecast Planning: Event Quantification Putting Opportunity Into Context

The Workshop will address the first and most important step in the forecasting process – the planning stage. The audience will have the opportunity to discuss various options when assessing risk from both the macro and micro perspective and determining the optimal methodology for typical forecasting requests. Practical case studies will be explored and fully discussed with audience participation.

DETAILS:

Assessment of risk at macro and micro level to help derive forecasting parameters and analysis

• Macro risk factors: Regulatory and Pricing/Reimbursement Issues and the Role of Payors, Competitor Threats, Marketing activities, Disease profile

• Micro risk factors: Clinical/Product level entry strategy, Key Driver Analysis , Buying chain and Market Landscape Modeling

Maiko Midena, Director Modeling and Forecasting, J&D Associates