9.30

10.50

Chairman Opening Speech

Given by:

Sean Davis, General Manager, Ferring

11.00

Forecast the future: Forecasting for executive decision-makers

• Find out what the key decisions pharma executives will need to make in the future to overcome the forecasting challenge
• Analysis vs. judgement:  Where should the balance lie and how does this affect your forecasts?
• Learn to distinguish characteristics of processes which lead to good decisions: Discover cutting edge examples and best practices
• Find out how to connect strategy to your finance teams for better-measured and tested forecasts and justify business-critical decisions to decision makers

Graham Clarke, CEO, Immunobiology

11.30

Valuing Change: The New Paradigm in Global Pharmaceutical Forecasting

• Learn how five key factors are changing market conditions and how this is impacting prescribing dynamics
• Find out how leading pharmaceutical companies are using event based simulations to model these dynamics
• Discover ways to accurately quantify and implement event based forecasting and valuation into your forecasts

Frank Cuoco, Senior Principal, IMS Health

12.00

A short history of the pharma future

• The future is not Reliving the Past: Understand why the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future
• The past as prelude, the present as punishment: Learn the key elements for driving change
• Find out how to overcome key management issues & the decline in industry leadership
• The Future as Reality: Get beyond hype and wishful thinking to a more realistic view of the long term
• Visualise your future: Discover dispatches from the future -2015

12.30

14.00

SAS Workshop

The Naked Truth About Forecasting

Workshop - Michael Allen Company

Market Structure Analysis & Patient Flow Modeling

Haro Cumbusyan, Partner - Healthcare Strategy Practice, Michael Allen Company

Workshop: Futurion

Assumption-Based Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry: Processes and Tools

Robert Carbone, CEO, Futurion

15.30

16.00

Understand the evolving responsibilities of the forecaster

• Learn how forecasting is becoming a process requiring a leader to manage it
• Relationship management: Learn about this critical component to the forecasting process 
• Discover that product and market competencies is essential to success and your forecasting excellence
• The forecaster: The key member of the product management team

16.30

Panel Session:
Improved forecasting through mapping market structure and patient flow

• Simulation-based forecasting: Model the evolution of individual patients’ health status and treatment options to predict market dynamics
• Integrate strategic and tactical approaches to forecasting: Use patient flow simulations to validate top line forecasts
• Avoid the pitfalls of traditional share prediction methods with market structure analysis and patient flow mapping

Moderator: Walter Brooks, Vice-President, Equinox Group

17.20

17.40

Short-term forecasting vs. long-term forecasting:
Is the difference just a matter of time?

• Understand what can happen over the short and long-term: which is harder?
• Learn what variables are there and use competitive intelligence and risk management to deliver a prediction when you forecast
• Know why long-term forecasting is vital for business and investment decisions even if the pay-off is uncertain
• Forecast for the pipeline: discover why this is a vital component of a Pharma company’s strategy in the age of the blockbuster drug to eliminate "failures" earlier on

18.10

Strategic marketing forecast:
One forecast, the single starting point for all corporate needs

• Discover the foundation of a really strategic forecasting plan for seamless operational and strategic decisions across divisions
• Find out how to support management in the decision making process with both target setting and portfolio decisions
• Improve the effectiveness of the gate keeping steps of the development process to produce accurate forecasts
• Global vs. local planning: Ways to establish one common language with cross-divisional and cross-geographical alignment

Stefano Malvolti, Head of Forecasting, Novartis

18.40

An evolutionary perspective on pharma: Where are we headed?

• Understand evolutionary mechanisms and market dynamics: Can we make any parallels?
• Learn evolutionary principles and pharma marketing to produce forecasting excellence
• Gain new perspectives for strategy development that develop accurate forecasts

19.10

20.00

7.30

8.50

Chairman Opening Speech

Given by:

Gary Johnson, Managing Director, Inpharmation

9.00

Understanding forecasting fundamentals: Sharpen your competitive edge

• Discover how to create multiple scenarios to allow planning for different contingencies and ensure cross-functional participation and ownership
• Establish frameworks and processes for incorporating qualitative information and expert judgment and take appropriate measures to minimize bias
• Ensure thoughtful balance between complexity required to adequately assess the market and sufficient simplicity to be readily understood by management
• Learn how to provide transparent documentation to support forecasts and ensure all assumptions are clearly presented

09.30

Forecasting excellence: Lost in Translation

• Find out how forecasts get lost in translation and how finance, production and marketing forecasts need to be integrated
• Understand that with traditional pharma forecasts, additional costs could be lost in the margins and inaccurate forecasts are usual
• Overcome the challenge that  lies in finding a way to motivate all parties to hold forecasting as the key to an effective strategy
• Learn and explore innovative case studies and draw provocative conclusions for a cutting edge action plan

10.00

An alternative mindset: Forecasting as an ongoing process

• Challenge the current forecasting mindset: Should finance play only a supportive role rather then driving the process?
• Understand the classical definition of forecasting and why it is necessary
• Traditional forecasting - Fact or Fiction: Discover the impact & rationale of decisions made via traditional forecasting and how this affects your bottom line
• Change the Paradigm: Learn the impact of changing the model and find out if your organization is ready to embrace change

Binyah Kesselly, Director of Process Excellence & Strategic Planning, Janssen Ortho

10.30

11.00

Enterprise Forecasting

• Understand what forecasting activities are usually performed in a pharmaceutical company and why?
• Find out what is meant by Enterprise Forecasting
• Discover what type of products and data should be covered within an Enterprise Forecasting Solution and what is the best methodology and technology?
• Learn what the costs of not moving in this direction are and what are the benefits?

11.30

Achieve better efficiency through a flexible approach to resourcing

• Overcome the difficulty in achieving required returns from an approach to resourcing that is broad and consistent
• Improve returns with reps aligned to prescribing potential, lifecycle, product and competitive position
• Gain efficiencies through improved targeting and contact effectiveness, and by improving the mechanism of delivery

12.00

Practical approaches to managing risk and uncertainty

• Quantifying uncertainty is itself highly uncertain: So why bother? Should we bother?
• Powerful techniques exist, but often the problem is the lack of data and its inaccuracy: Manage to overcome these problems to produce accurate forecasts
• Discover the shortcomings of some complex techniques and learn more practical ways of identifying and attempting to quantify risk and uncertainty when you forecast
• Learn some cutting edge examples and best practice to some approaches used at Roche

12.30

The changing role of the forecaster

• Discover how the forecaster will face more and more challenges and has to overcome cross functional relationship between continually increasing departments
• Find out how data is collected and included in forecasting models and why this has become more and more crucial
• Integration of different forecasting techniques is required as the new launches need in-depth analysis of the markets to provide better forecasting
• Future-proof your forecasting excellence:Analyse the additional core skills, experience and attributes product, business and marketing managers need to acquire

Aygen Kaçaran, Senior Sales Performance & Productivity Specialist, Merck
Zeynep güvener Bubik, Business Intelligence & Services Manager, Merck

13.00

14.30

"Technology Trends & Implications for Pharma"?

• Understand how to sustain competitive advantage through technology innovation and include this in forecasts to deliver forecasting excellence
• Learn about the top technology trends relevant to pharma and how they may affect your forecasts
• Find out how pharma can forecast technology to get ahead of the competition and discover how you can leverage emerging technologies to competitive advantage

15.00

The future of pharma: Forecast your path of excellence

• Understand the drivers of change in the pharma industry to deliver more accurate forecasts
• Learn how globalisation, the changing nature of disease, the increase cost of healthcare and government influence will affect the pharma future
• Find out how the systematic monitoring of outcomes, the rising consumer expectations and the need for value for money is changing the environment
• With the polarising pharma focus on the speciality drug or mass market, which path will you choose? Learn how to support that decision and how to forecast for this

Nick Jones, Pharma Sales & Marketing, PriceWaterhouseCoopers

15.30

Panel Discussion: Leveraging Data for Effective Critical Business Decisions

Moderator: Andree Bates, Managing Director, Campbell Bellman
Panellists:
Richard Murgatroyd, Forecast Manager, Roche

16.15

17.00

Roundtable:
The top 10 pitfalls of forecasting and how to avoid them

18.00

Can the Many forecast better than the Few?

Given by:

Joe Miles, Director of eyeforpharma’s new online product, PharmaDAQ.com

18.30

20.00

7.45

9.00

Pharmaceutical forecasting in uncertain markets:
Experience from the Middle East

• Find out how to overcome the hurdles in developing world markets and provide accurate pharmaceutical forecasting
• Discover techniques used to overcome the paucity of marketing audits and lack of epidemiological data for your forecasts
• Lack of market stability? Find out how to forecast in wars and conflicts with non-transparent registration and pricing legislations
• Discover best-practice methods that utilise field data, partnering with locals and scenario planning to produce accurate forecasts

Nader Rizkalla, Business Manager, Schering-Plough

9.30

Optimise your combination of forecasting approaches in the emerging market setting

• Embrace the usage of external market data and internal information gathered from the field to forecast with excellence
• Understand that external market data may be less accurate but provides the broad landscape view for producing accurate forecasts
• Learn that internal data used to forecast may be more accurate, but narrow, not allowing to measure the performance vs. competitors
• Combine external and internal data through reinforcement of the horizontal communication of sales and marketing people

Victor Ferkovich, Business Unit Manager, Janssen-Cilag

10.00

10.45

Demographic forecasting and rethinking patient access -Case study China

• Understand the importance of demographic forecasting in improving the accuracy of therapy forecasts
• The patient as the major payer- discover the value of forecasting patient affordability in determining patient access.
• Learn from examples how demographic and affordability forecast models have optimized ROI in China
• Discover how forecasting patient affordability can enhance Pharma forecasts in other markets (Europe and US)

Dr Susan Ward, Asian Demographics Healthcare Ltd

11.15

Factor the impact of the U.S. pay or landscape into forecasting models

• Gain an understanding of the current U.S. payor environment, including public and private payor types to stay ahead of the curve
• Learn how to examine strategies to accurately identify key payor decision makers and incorporate this in your forecasting models
• Explore the various complexities in attaining coverage and reimbursement across public and private payors and how this affects your forecasts
• Understand and consider the impact of payor determinations across product life cycle, including product viability, adoption curves, and revenue projections

Mary Bordeaux, Managing Partner, Mary Bordeaux Consulting

11.45

Use pharmacoeconomic strategies to develop and support pharma product forecasts

• Understand how pharmacoeconomics can be used to highlight the clinical and financial attributes of a pharmaceutical product
• Discover how to use pharmacoeconomics in pricing and forecasting decisions
• Learn how pharmacoeconomics can be leveraged to overcome a “noisy” competitive market 
• Recognize the range of audiences for which pharmacoeconomic messages should be tailored

Cheryl Hankin, President and Chief Scientific Officer, BioMedEcon

12.15

13.45

Roundtable:
The top 10 pitfalls of forecasting and how to avoid them

15.15

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